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Feb 13, 2026
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LONG
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"Iran felt a lot more stable... in 2025... Right now, in early 2026, I think that they're feeling a lot more vulnerable... Oil prices did sustainably rise this time." In 2025, geopolitical noise didn't stick to oil prices. Now, domestic instability in Iran combined with aggressive US military signaling (aircraft carriers) creates a genuine risk to supply. A "backed into a corner" Iran is more likely to disrupt energy flows, supporting higher crude prices. LONG. Geopolitical risk premium is returning to the energy market. A quick diplomatic resolution or demand destruction from a global economic slowdown. |
CNBC
Markets weigh geopolitics, tariffs and tech p...
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